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RIG Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Transocean (RIG) could see upward price movements driven by increased contract wins, a recovering oil market, and improved investor sentiment reflected in rising call option volumes and backwardated implied volatility leading into early 2025.



Bearish Case: However, persistent high debt levels and declining offshore drilling demand amid regulatory pressures may keep investor sentiment negative, resulting in continued stock price decline if contract roll-offs outpace new signings.



Potential Outcomes:

1. 45% chance: Successful contract wins boost revenue significantly.

2. 30% chance: Ongoing high debt pressures lead to sharp declines.

3. 25% chance: Regulatory challenges disrupt growth and amplify losses.



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November 14, 2024


Transocean Forecast

RIG        Transocean

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RIG


MUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MUR  Murphy Oil (0.88)


MOS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MOS  Mosaic (0.82)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (0.79)


CAR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CAR  Avis Budget (0.78)


RILY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RILY  B. Riley Financial (0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RIG


MPW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MPW  Medical Properties (-0.0)


DBX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DBX  Dropbox (-0.0)


CWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWEB  Direxion Daily CSI China Internet Index Bu (0.0)


CPRT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CPRT  Copart (-0.01)


ERY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERY  Direxion Daily Energy Bear 2X Shares (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RIG


INFY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INFY  Infosys (-0.76)


ICE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ICE  Intercontinental Exchange (-0.77)


ISRG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ISRG  Intuitive Surgical (-0.77)


COHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COHR  Coherent (-0.78)


GWRE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GWRE  Guidewire Software (-0.79)







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