Bullish Case: Rivian's recent partnership with Volkswagen boosts confidence, potentially driving rapid production ramp-up and improved margins, leading to increased investor sentiment and stock recovery.

Bearish Case: Persisting production issues and high cash burn continue to threaten Rivian's financial stability, hampered by a decline in investor confidence and intensified competition in the EV market.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings report leading to a price jump (40%)
2. Continued production challenges leading to further declines (50%)
3. Market reaction to innovation successes or failures (30%)
4. Regulatory risks impacting operational agility (25%)

Trading Oracle: Given the current high implied volatility (~73%) and mixed market sentiment, consider bullish debit spreads using calls at $11, selling higher strikes like $12 for potential upside capture. This approach maximizes leverage on positive news while managing downside risk amid current uncertainty.

November 19, 2024