RSF Forecast


Bullish Case: Despite recent flat performance, historical analyses indicate a potential rebound in RSF, particularly with a favorable geopolitical shift or market recovery. The return surface suggests a possibility of moderate gains if stability returns in the region.


Bearish Case: Geopolitical tensions and weak fundamentals continue to pressure RSF, risking further declines. Current trends and forecast indicators support a bearish stance, especially with ongoing conflict and economic instability in key markets.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued flat performance (50%).

2. Short-term rally due to market optimism (20%).

3. Significant declines if conflicts escalate (20%).

4. Stabilization leading to moderate gains (10%). The probabilities reflect current geopolitical risks and market sentiment.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bearish strategy with a 3-month credit spread ($15.50/$16), capitalizing on RSF's weak fundamentals and high uncertainty. This approach positions you for premium income while managing risk effectively under current market conditions.


July 24, 2024


RiverNorth Specialty Finance Forecast

RSF      RiverNorth Specialty Finance











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RSF



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.22)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.02)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.46)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RSF



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.02)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.22)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.25)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.46)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RSF



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.25)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.22)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.02)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.46)





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