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RYAN Forecast

Price Forecast:

80% Confidence

Bearish <-> Bullish

Bullish Case: RYAN's niche in specialty insurance and potential MGU integration could drive growth, supported by a moderate term structure volatility Helium.

Bearish Case: Persistently high and volatile implied vols signal potential negative sentiment regarding earnings, particularly amid ongoing D&O claims Helium.

Potential Outcomes: Positive MGU execution boosts price (+55% confidence); D&O claims pressure earnings (-30%); Stable performance with minor price changes (+15%) Helium.

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying RYAN April 2025 $65 calls and selling $70 calls. This leverages moderate IV and anticipates MGU-driven recovery, aiming for quick gains with limited risk over the next 4-5 months.

December 24, 2024

Ryan Specialty Forecast

RYAN Ryan Specialty

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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SPLG SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RYAN

FANG Diamondback Energy (0.0)

AVTR Avantor (-0.01)

NSSC NAPCO Security (0.01)

ZTS Zoetis (-0.02)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RYAN

XRAY DENTSPLY Sirona (-0.9)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.9)

RWM ProShares Trust - ProShares Short Russell2000 (-0.9)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.92)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.94)

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