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RYAN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Recent trends suggest RYAN could benefit from a successful MGU integration, potentially driving up prices. With current low implied volatility and positive expected returns, the market may underestimate upside potential as earnings improve.



Bearish Case: Continued concerns over D&O claims could negatively impact earnings, especially with elevated implied volatility and recent price stagnation. Market skepticism rooted in historical performance suggests downside risks remain significant.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Successful MGU integration leads to a 20% price increase (+60% chance).

2. Ongoing D&O claims pressure causes a 15% price drop (-30% chance).

3. Market sentiment stabilizes, resulting in neutral price movement (+10% chance).



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy $70 calls and sell $75 calls expiring in January 2025. This strategy leverages the anticipated recovery and low IV for an attractive risk-reward profile, targeting potential 15-20% upside amid current market conditions while limiting downfall risks.


November 20, 2024


Ryan Specialty Forecast

RYAN        Ryan Specialty

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Assets that tend to move strongly with RYAN


USMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USMV  BTC iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor (0.96)


IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (0.95)


IVV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IVV  BTC iShares Core S&P 500 (0.94)


CLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLH  Clean Harbors (0.94)


PEG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PEG  Public Service Enterprise (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RYAN


GLBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GLBE  Global E Online (-0.0)


ACN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ACN  Accenture (-0.0)


EH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EH  EHang Holdings Ltd - (0.01)


SOFI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SOFI  SoFi (0.01)


LEU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEU  Centrus Energy (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RYAN


ETSY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETSY  Etsy (-0.92)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.92)


SEDG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEDG  Solaredge (-0.93)


OCSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OCSL  Oaktree Specialty Lending (-0.93)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.94)







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