RYAN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: RYAN's implied volatility is lower than market's, indicating potential upside. Historical mean reversion supports bullish sentiment. Positive options volume hints at investor confidence.




Bearish Case: High D&O claims and fluctuating implied volatility suggest risk. Elevated put volume indicates market concern, signaling potential downward pressure.




Potential Outcomes:
  • MGU success drives growth: 60%
  • D&O claims increase, hurting earnings: 30%
  • Mean reversion maintains stability: 10%




Trading Oracle: Bullish Long Volatility Strategy: Buy $70 OOTM calls and sell fewer $75 calls. Low IV and positive mean reversion imply potential upside. Anticipate volatility to capitalize on undervaluation and potential catalysts.



March 25, 2025


Ryan Specialty Forecast

RYAN        Ryan Specialty











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RYAN



SPLV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLV  Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility (0.93)


HIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIG  Hartford Financial Services (0.89)


EPAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPAC  Enerpac Tool Group Corp (0.88)


CWAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CWAN  Clearwater Analytics Holdings (0.87)


VIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIG  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Dividend Appreciation FTF (0.86)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RYAN



DNOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNOW  NOW (-0.0)


AEHR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEHR  Aehr Test Systems (0.0)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (0.01)


CRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CRC  California Resources (0.01)


NXST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NXST  Nexstar Media (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RYAN



EC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EC  Ecopetrol SA (-0.8)


DK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DK  Delek US (-0.8)


EL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EL  Estee Lauder Cos. (-0.81)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (-0.84)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.85)









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