RYAN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: RYAN's implied volatility is lower than market's, indicating potential upside. Historical mean reversion supports bullish sentiment. Positive options volume hints at investor confidence.




Bearish Case: High D&O claims and fluctuating implied volatility suggest risk. Elevated put volume indicates market concern, signaling potential downward pressure.




Potential Outcomes:
  • MGU success drives growth: 60%
  • D&O claims increase, hurting earnings: 30%
  • Mean reversion maintains stability: 10%




Trading Oracle: Bullish Long Volatility Strategy: Buy $70 OOTM calls and sell fewer $75 calls. Low IV and positive mean reversion imply potential upside. Anticipate volatility to capitalize on undervaluation and potential catalysts.



March 25, 2025


Ryan Specialty Forecast

RYAN        Ryan Specialty











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with RYAN



HIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIG  Hartford Financial Services (0.89)


FNF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNF  Fidelity National Financial (0.88)


ADC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADC  Agree Realty (0.86)


TW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TW  Tradeweb Markets (0.85)


PPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PPC  Pilgrim's Pride (0.84)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to RYAN



CZR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CZR  Caesars Entertainment (0.01)


CMCSA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMCSA  Comcast (0.01)


TYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TYD  Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.02)


LIT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LIT  Global X Lithium & Battery Tech (0.03)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.04)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against RYAN



AGEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGEN  Agenus (-0.78)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (-0.8)


TDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDW  Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.81)


NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (-0.84)


SHLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHLS  Shoals (-0.84)









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