SMI Forecast


Bullish Case: The consistent, flat price action over the last two years and the HIstorical Return Surface showing likelihood of positive returns in bullish closeouts makes SMI attractive for conservative investors seeking stability. Recent positive investor sentiment in Swiss markets offers additional upside potential.


Bearish Case: The flat price action, combined with recent slight declines, suggests minimal short-term upside. The neutral HeliumTrades AI price forecast and the unusual correlation trends (-0.1) signal potential risks without significant near-term catalysts.


Potential Outcomes:

1. SID increases 10% post-August earnings (20%) -

2. Price drop due to economic instability (25%) -

3. Continuation of flat price trend (50%) -

4. Regulatory benefits for sustainable investments (5%)


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish Helium short-volatility credit spreads, leveraging minimal fluctuations. Time horizon is 3-6 months. Sell 47 puts/buy 45 puts expiring Dec 2024. Expect minimal price movements, yielding high probability of profit.


July 03, 2024


VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni Forecast

SMI      VanEck ETF Trust - VanEck HIP Sustainable Muni











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.58)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMI



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.58)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMI



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.58)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.12)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.18)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.37)





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