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SMPL Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: SMPL's backwardated term structure suggests potential undervaluation. High call volume and historical demand trends may drive price recovery as market stabilizes.

Bearish Case: Flat price action and declining trend raise concerns. Elevated implied volatility in puts and competitive pressures indicate potential downside risk for SMPL.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Moderate growth driven by health trends: 50%.

2. Mean reversion stabilizes market: 30%.

3. Competitive pressure causes decline: 20%.

July 02, 2025

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SMPL

CPRT Copart (0.77)

UPWK Upwork (0.68)

LULU Lululemon Athletica inc. (0.67)

PTON Peloton Interactive (0.64)

KODK Eastman Kodak (0.62)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMPL

CZR Caesars Entertainment (0.0)

XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR (-0.0)

OKTA Okta (-0.01)

EA Electronic Arts (-0.01)

DFEN Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMPL

ES Eversource Energy (-0.61)

VOD Vodafone (-0.62)

TTE TotalEnergies SE (-0.63)

O Realty Income (-0.63)

HII Huntington Ingalls Industries (-0.67)

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