SMPL Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) may experience notable upside due to increased demand for health-conscious products, bolstered by recent acquisitions like OWYN, which can expand market share. Analysts predict a return to strong growth backed by expected Q3 performance improvements and a generally favorable market outlook for healthy snacks.


Bearish Case: SMPL faces risks from declining sales in established brands like Atkins. Insider selling trends indicate possible lack of confidence, and potential economic downturns may negatively impact consumer spending on premium snack products, suggesting a challenging road ahead for revenue growth.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued demand for healthy snacks (60% chance).

2. Decline in sales due to competition (25% chance).

3. Successful execution of growth strategy with OWYN (15% chance). Each outcome reflects underlying historical volatility and market sentiment observed in recent trends.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish debit spread: buy SMPL 11/15/2024 40.00 C and sell 50.00 C. This strategy capitalizes on undervaluation and the high implied volatility of recent call options. Focus on capturing growth as market catalysts materialize, while managing risk with defined exit points for high reward-to-risk potential.


July 25, 2024


Simply Good Foods Forecast

SMPL      Simply Good Foods











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ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMPL



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.19)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.01)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.01)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.62)





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