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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: The bullish scenario hinges on a successful earnings report, coupled with increasing demand in the IoT market, potentially driving SMTC stock to rise significantly. The implied volatility suggests market optimism, supporting this outlook.



Bearish Case: Conversely, a disappointing earnings report could exacerbate bearish sentiment due to high short interest and the recent acquisition's cost, where unfavorable results could lead to further declines in SMTC’s stock price, as suggested by rising implied volatility.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive earnings report leading to a 60% chance of significant price appreciation (40%+).

2. Earnings meet expectations, yielding a 20% chance of flat trading.

3. Disappointing earnings with a 30% chance, potentially driving price down (10%+).



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October 20, 2024


Semtech Forecast

SMTC        Semtech

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SMTC


MDLZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MDLZ  Mondelez International (0.0)


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GNTX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GNTX  Gentex (0.0)


MCD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCD  McDonald's (0.0)


ASO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASO  Academy Sports and Outdoors (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SMTC


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.85)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.85)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.86)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.86)


DUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DUST  Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bear 2X S (-0.89)







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