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SPY Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Stable implied volatility and mean-reverting price action suggest resilience, coupled with high trading volume on call options indicating bullish sentiment.

Bearish Case: Backwardation and low options trading volume imply market caution, with geopolitical uncertainty weighing on investor sentiment.

Potential Outcomes: Market stabilizes, SPY trades around $580 (50%).
SPY correction to $550 if economic data worsens (30%).
Geopolitical tensions keep SPY below $540 (20%).

May 11, 2025

SPDR S&P 500 Forecast

SPY SPDR S&P 500

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPY

XLG Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco S&P 500 Top 50 (0.98)

SPYG SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth (0.97)

SSO ProShares Ultra S&P500 (0.97)

AIQ Global X Funds - Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology (0.96)

VT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock (0.96)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPY

BEPC Brookfield Renewable (0.0)

OUST Ouster (-0.0)

SNY Sanofi (0.01)

FE Firstenergy (-0.02)

ADI Analog Devices (-0.03)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPY

XP XP (-0.57)

TMDX Transmedics (-0.59)

EWW iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.63)

PAGS PagSeguro Digital (-0.75)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.78)

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