SUM Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: The Argos USA merger and strong post-merger revenues fortify SUM’s market position, suggesting potential for growth as synergies manifest and infrastructure investments rise.




Bearish Case: High starting valuations, coupled with macroeconomic uncertainties and integration challenges, could impede growth and trigger a market correction.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Effective merger integration boosts profitability (40%).
  • Valuation contraction from macroeconomic concerns leads to correction (30%).
  • Outperformance due to infrastructure investments (20%).
  • Regulatory changes impact negatively (10%).




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February 13, 2025


Summit Materials Forecast

SUM        Summit Materials











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SUM



CG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CG  Carlyle (0.86)


PAYC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAYC  Paycom Software (0.79)


LYV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LYV  Live Nation Entertainment (0.78)


SHAK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHAK  Shake Shack (0.78)


V Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   V  Visa (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SUM



IOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IOVA  Iovance Biotherapeutics (0.0)


TAL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAL  TAL Education (0.0)


KOLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KOLD  ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.01)


DAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DAN  Dana (-0.01)


XOP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XOP  SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SUM



SHIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SHIP  Seanergy Maritime (-0.69)


TNK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNK  Teekay Tankers (-0.69)


GEL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GEL  Genesis Energy (-0.69)


REGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REGN  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (-0.74)


TMDX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMDX  Transmedics (-0.75)









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