SUM Forecast


Bullish Case: Historical returns indicate potential for substantial gains (>10% over 2 years), supported by stabilized implied volatility suggesting market confidence.


Bearish Case: High short-term volatility and flat term structure imply potential near-term instability, risking downside correction if earnings disappoint.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Effective integration of Argos USA (40% chance).

2. Market revaluation of earnings resulting in price drop (30% chance).

3. Outperformance of sector (20% chance).

4. Valuation contraction (10% chance).


Trading Oracle: Trade bullish debit spreads, target December 2024 expirations given favorable implied volatility. Buy $40 calls, sell $45 calls—offers high reward:risk with delta: 0.63. High probability of profit if bullish trend continues. Monitor for earnings updates.


July 18, 2024


Summit Materials Forecast

SUM      Summit Materials











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SUM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.67)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.38)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SUM



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.38)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.67)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SUM



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.67)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.38)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.24)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.38)





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