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SWTX Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Merck's acquisition talks could drive SWTX's value higher. FDA approvals boost revenue potentials and market expansion, stabilizing long-term projections.



Bearish Case: Volatility remains high, indicating potential risks with R&D expenses. Competition and stock valuation concerns may hinder price growth and affect profitability.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Acquisition by Merck: 35%
  • Strong trial results: 25%
  • Revenue miss: 20%
  • Stock price correction: 15%
  • Macroeconomic impacts: 5%



Trading Oracle: Engage in bullish short volatility strategies with SWTX. Optimal trade: Sell 60 strike calls, buy 65 strike calls, to capitalize on implied volatility drop post-catalysts. Expect significant returns as volatility calms by June. Monitor closely for unexpected news impacting volatility.


February 14, 2025


SpringWorks Therapeutics Forecast

SWTX        SpringWorks Therapeutics

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SWTX


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (0.88)


HTZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HTZ  Hertz Global Holdings (0.82)


GO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GO  Grocery Outlet (0.82)


AAP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AAP  Advance Auto Parts (0.78)


TDOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TDOC  Teladoc Health (0.78)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SWTX


SLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLS  SELLAS Life Sciences (0.0)


WPC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WPC  W. P. Carey (-0.0)


JOE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOE  St. Joe (0.01)


JBLU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JBLU  Jetblue Airways (-0.01)


XYL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XYL  Xylem (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SWTX


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (-0.77)


CHRW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHRW  C.H. Robinson Worldwide (-0.78)


ZETA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZETA  Zeta Global Holdings Corp (-0.8)


SATS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SATS  EchoStar (-0.8)


SO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SO  Southern (-0.81)







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