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TBT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A rebound could occur if inflation persists, potentially driving TBT higher amid increasing demand for T-bond inverses and rising implied volatility, suggesting strong price action ahead.



Bearish Case: Conversely, a negative macroeconomic event could trigger a sharp drop in TBT, especially if market yield pressures lead to increased selling, as indicated by bearish sentiment in current options volume.



Potential Outcomes:

1) Price stabilization at $32 (40% chance) driven by market normalization;

2) Rally to $36 (30% chance) from heightened inflation fears;

3) Drop to $30 (30% chance) following economic shocks.



Trading Oracle: Implement a long call debit spread, buying the TBT $35 call and selling the $36 call expiring in ~30 days. This positions you to capitalize on potential upward movement against a backdrop of rising implied volatility, maximizing reward: risk with a favorable outlook.


October 27, 2024


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TBT        PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TBT


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (1.0)


TBF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBF  ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (0.99)


RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (0.68)


CTRA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CTRA  Coterra Energy (0.68)


HES Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HES  Hess (0.66)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TBT


BYRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BYRN  Byrna (0.0)


BBIO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBIO  BridgeBio Pharma (-0.0)


ZWS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZWS  Zurn Water (-0.0)


GSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSK  Glaxosmithkline (0.0)


FNV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FNV  Franco-Nevada (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TBT


BND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BND  Vanguard Total Bond Market (-0.95)


VCLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VCLT  Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond (-0.96)


VGLT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VGLT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury (-0.98)


LTPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LTPZ  PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded (-0.98)


TLH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TLH  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond (-0.99)







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