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TBT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Current implied volatility suggests potential upside for TBT. With economic uncertainty and potential for continued inflation, TBT might benefit from increased demand, driving prices upwards.



Bearish Case: If rate cuts occur unexpectedly or economic conditions worsen, TBT could face significant declines. The high put volume indicates market sentiment leaning towards bearish expectations.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance TBT stabilizes around $34.00.
  • 30% chance it falls to $30.00 on economic downturn news.
  • 30% chance it rises to $37.00 if inflation fears escalate.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying TBT $36 calls and selling $37 calls with a ~65% chance of profit. This strategy maximizes upside potential against the backdrop of increased volatility while keeping risk on the lower side.


November 23, 2024


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TBT        PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TBT


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SRPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRPT  Sarepta Therapeutics (-0.0)


AKBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AKBA  Akebia Therapeutics (-0.0)


ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (0.01)


TRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TRV  Travelers Companies (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TBT


PSA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PSA  Public Storage (-0.71)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (-0.71)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.76)


UDN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UDN  Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.79)


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (-0.85)







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