TKR Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Given the historically favorable return distributions, TKR may rally if strategic synergies from acquisitions play out, potentially approaching the resistance level near $80.




Bearish Case: Current elevated implied volatility signals market caution. If insider selling sentiment prevails, TKR could break below the support around $70, leading to further declines.




Potential Outcomes:

1. (50%) Acquisition synergies boost TKR stability and drive price up to $80.

2. (30%) Insider selling impacts market sentiment, forcing TKR down to $65.

3. (20%) Market corrections lead to sharp declines past $60 due to macroeconomic pressures.




Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish debit spread: Buy the $75 call and sell the $80 call targeting December 2024 expiration. Given current volatility structure, this captures potential upward movement while managing risk effectively. Align this with market odds for profit, ensuring a refined risk-reward profile of 3.3:1.



November 21, 2024


Timken Forecast

TKR        Timken











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AEO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AEO  American Eagle Outfitters (0.74)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TKR



ZI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ZI  ZoomInfo (0.0)


MTN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MTN  Vail Resorts (-0.0)


ILMN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ILMN  Illumina (-0.0)


BEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BEN  Franklin Resources (-0.0)


MBI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MBI  MBIA (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TKR



WMT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WMT  Walmart (-0.68)


CHTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHTR  Charter Communications (-0.68)


EXTR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EXTR  Extreme Networks (-0.69)


AUPH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AUPH  Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (-0.69)


NKLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NKLA  Nikola (-0.69)









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