TME Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TME's strong market position in China and innovative services can drive growth. Options indicate significant bullish interest, with volatility levels suggesting high potential upside.




Bearish Case: Regulatory challenges in China and competition may hinder growth. The term structure in backwardation indicates potential near-term downside risks, reflecting market uncertainty.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Price rises ($13) due to market expansion (35%).

2. Price stabilizes ($12) amid regulatory news (40%).

3. Decline to $11 from competition issues (25%).



March 14, 2025


Tencent Music Entertainment Group - Forecast

TME        Tencent Music Entertainment Group -











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