TMV Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TMV's recent 24.4% riseHelium and lower relative volatility in SPY suggests potential for continued upward momentum as bond market pressures may recede, supporting bullish strategies.




Bearish Case: The historical price return surface indicates prevailing negative sentimentHelium. High implied volatility and bearish options volumeHelium suggest continued pressure on TMV.




Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance TMV remains range-bound around

2. 25% chance of breakout due to favorable bond yield changes .

3. 15% probability of bearish decline if negative economic data emergesHelium.




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January 16, 2025


Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares Forecast

TMV        Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares











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YELP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YELP  Yelp (0.61)


APH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APH  Amphenol (0.6)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TMV



BCS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BCS  Barclays (0.0)


VTRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTRS  Viatris (0.0)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (0.0)


COTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COTY  Coty (0.0)


SLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SLS  SELLAS Life Sciences (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TMV



MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (-0.68)


UWMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UWMC  UWM Holdings Corporation (-0.7)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (-0.73)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.73)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (-0.79)









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