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TOL Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: TOL's resilient expansion into luxury markets, coupled with positive sentiment, positions it well for robust growth despite the current economic climate Helium.



Bearish Case: Concerns over insider selling and elevated implied volatility suggest potential instability, especially in a fluctuating interest rate environment Helium.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 50% chance of sustained growth driven by luxury market demand, aligning with historical bullish predictions Helium.
  • 30% chance of correction from insider selling concerns, given persistent skepticism Helium.
  • 20% chance of unpredictable volatility impacts as seen in historical price actions Helium.



Trading Oracle: Engage in bullish debit spreads by buying TOL 06/20/2025 $140 calls and selling $150 calls. The backwardation structure and demand indicate short-term growth potential. Target a 3-5 month outlook to capitalize on upside, high reward:risk ratio.


January 23, 2025


Toll Brothers Forecast

TOL        Toll Brothers

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VTV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VTV  Vanguard Value (0.89)


AFL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AFL  Aflac (0.88)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TOL


DNN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DNN  Denison Mines (0.0)


XYL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XYL  Xylem (-0.0)


GTLB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLB  Gitlab (-0.0)


NOVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOVA  Sunnova Energy International (0.0)


HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TOL


APLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLS  Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.75)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.76)


SONY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SONY  Sony Group Corporation (-0.76)


LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.78)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.8)







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