TOUR Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: TOUR's short-term returns have shown potential spikes, supported by the post-COVID travel recovery and growing domestic tourism trends. These factors could enhance its market position and lead to a positive shift in returns, especially over shorter holding periods.




Bearish Case: The return surface indicates a high likelihood of negative returns over longer holding periods, coupled with financial uncertainties and fierce competition. Continued operational challenges and market volatility could hinder any short-term recovery efforts.




Potential Outcomes:

1. Short-term volatility spikes (65%).

2. Possible minor short-term gains due to tourism demand (35%).

3. Sustained operational challenges causing declines (50%).

4. Potential strategic partnerships increase (30%).



April 16, 2025


Tuniu Corp Forecast

TOUR        Tuniu Corp











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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TOUR



OUST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUST  Ouster (-0.0)


EA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EA  Electronic Arts (-0.01)


GSL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSL  Global Ship Lease (0.01)


GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (0.01)


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Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TOUR



ADM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ADM  Archer Daniels Midland (-0.34)


PAGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PAGS  PagSeguro Digital (-0.34)


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PRAA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PRAA  PRA (-0.35)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.38)









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