Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: TOUR could experience significant gains if there's a resurgence in travel demand, supported by recent positive price movement (+58.1% YoY) and high tourist interest for the upcoming holiday season, fostering a potential recovery mindset.

Bearish Case: Should macroeconomic challenges persist, including high operational costs and low consumer confidence, TOUR may face downward pressure, particularly evident from historical returns favoring short holding periods where losses are common.

Potential Outcomes:

• Increased demand for travel (40% probability)
• Continued operational struggles (35% probability)
• Economic downturn impacts (20% probability)
• Potential for acquisition interest (5% probability)

Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread with TOUR 01/17/2025 2.50 C and 5.00 C options. With high implied volatility (500%), this strategy has strong profit potential catering to short-term price rebounds. Focus on a 1-3 month timeframe for capturing volatility. The high likelihood of a price increase aligns with seasonal tourism demand.

December 18, 2024