Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Strong bullish indicators emerge from TPC’s low price-to-book ratio (0.3), and an expected rise from infrastructure contracts and market volatility, potentially driving prices upward in the near term.

Bearish Case: Ample liquidity issues and insider selling raise red flags; high implied volatility suggests potential for dramatic price swings and downside risk, predominantly if market sentiment deteriorates.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 60% chance of price rising to $35 in 3 months due to contracts;

2. 20% chance flat movement around $30;

3. 20% chance dropped to $25 due to market reports.

Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish debit spread by buying TPC 01/17/2025 30.00 calls and selling 35.00 calls to capitalize on anticipated volatility and upward price movement. This should yield significant alpha given current implied volatility metrics, offering high probability of profit.

November 13, 2024