TRIN Forecast


Bullish Case: TRIN has consistent call option volumes and moderate implied volatility. Despite recent price drops, historical returns indicate potential for moderate recovery in the mid-term.


Bearish Case: TRIN volatility suggests high market uncertainty with historical data showing negative returns over several holding windows. Current declining trend is concerning.


Potential Outcomes: Likelihood: 40% chance of slight recovery in share price amidst dividend announcements, 30% chance of continued flat trend due to market uncertainty, 30% chance of further decline reflecting general market hardship.


Trading Oracle: Trade short-term bearish credit spreads. Volatility surfaces suggest higher than usual implied volatilities in under 90 days, aligning with high market uncertainty. Position for continued downside risk with $7.50 and $10.00 put spread expiring September 2024.


July 23, 2024


Trinity Forecast

TRIN      Trinity











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TRIN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.42)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.17)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.04)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.17)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TRIN



LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.04)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.17)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.17)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.42)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TRIN



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.42)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.17)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.04)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.17)





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