Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Under Armour's strategic partnerships and promotional activities could restore investor confidence, potentially pushing the stock above $10.00 as noted by increased call volume and bullish sentiment in recent options data.

Bearish Case: Persistent challenges such as high inventory levels and declining sales, coupled with recent analyst downgrades, may continue to pressure UAA's stock, driving it further below $9.00 given current market uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% chance UAA moves above $10 following strong Q4 results and strategic initiatives paying off.

2. 35% chance UAA stabilizes around $9 in response to steadfast brand strategies.

3. 25% chance UAA declines below $9 if ongoing inventory issues and market skepticism prevail.

Trading Oracle: Consider implementing a bullish debit spread by buying UAA $10 calls and selling $11 calls expiring in 30 days. This strategy capitalizes on rising sentiment and increased implied volatility while targeting a 30% potential return, aligning with current market dynamics and recent positive earnings surprises.

November 15, 2024