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UNG Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: The UNG historical volatility reveals potential for upside driven by geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. Recent price increases reinforce bullish optimism.

Bearish Case: Backwardation in term structure and high short-term implied volatility suggest possible economic slowdown or oversupply fears leading to downward pressure on prices.

Potential Outcomes: 30% Upside: Driven by geopolitical tensions affecting supply lines.
40% Neutral: Stabilization with minimal price changes expected.
30% Downside: Potential economic slowdown impacting demand.

May 08, 2025

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Assets that tend to move strongly with UNG

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UNG

SLS SELLAS Life Sciences (-0.0)

VT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock (-0.0)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.01)

DFEN Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (-0.01)

SMMT Summit Therapeutics (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UNG

CMCSA Comcast (-0.7)

PHM PulteGroup (-0.71)

IRM Iron Mountain (-0.71)

ITB BTC iShares U.S. Home Construction (-0.74)

KOLD ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Natural Gas (-0.95)

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