URBN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: URBN is experiencing strong growth in key brands and outperforms recent market volatility predictions. Positive sentiment in options trading supports potential upward trends.




Bearish Case: URBN struggles with core brand performance amidst rising competition and macroeconomic uncertainty. Implied volatilities suggest potential downturns.




Potential Outcomes:
  • Brand growth sustains, supporting stock price (+65%).
  • Competitive pressures dampen success (-30%).
  • Demand rises unexpectedly, driving prices higher (+50%).




Trading Oracle: Invest in a bullish short volatility strategy. Sell $52 puts and buy $50 puts, expiring in 14 days. Capture 81% probability of profit, leveraging implied volatility discrepancies, and historical mean reversion.



February 12, 2025


Urban Outfitters Forecast

URBN        Urban Outfitters











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with URBN



FPI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FPI  Farmland (0.7)


ASAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASAN  Asana (0.68)


GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (0.65)


CQP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CQP  Cheniere Energy (0.62)


NEXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEXT  NextDecade (0.59)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to URBN



XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.0)


DOMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DOMO  Domo (-0.0)


CMC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CMC  Commercial Metals (0.0)


AXON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AXON  Axon Enterprise (0.01)


FLR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLR  Fluor (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against URBN



RARE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RARE  Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (-0.58)


HCA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HCA  HCA Healthcare (-0.6)


MFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MFA  MFA Financial (-0.6)


LEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LEN  Lennar (-0.6)


GIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIS  General Mills (-0.65)









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