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URBN Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: URBN's recent calculation of seasonal demand, positive holiday sentiments, and consistent performance in Free People and Anthropologie present a favorable environment for price recovery, potentially breaking above $54.



Bearish Case: Persistent legal challenges and intensified market competition, coupled with low implied volatility and overall consumer caution, risk further downside, possibly leading URBN below $50 in the near term.



Potential Outcomes:
  • High seasonal sales exceeding expectations (65%).
  • Legal issues persist, negatively impacting market sentiment (50%).
  • Innovative product launches significantly boost revenue (60%).
  • Increased competition erodes market share (55%).



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish credit spread by selling the $52 put and buying the $50 put, targeting the next 7-14 days. This strategy benefits from potential short-term price stabilization and exhibits an 81% probability of profit, leveraging historical mean reversion patterns while capturing premium against lower market volatility.


December 15, 2024


Urban Outfitters Forecast

URBN        Urban Outfitters

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Assets that tend to move strongly with URBN


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CLSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLSK  Cleanspark (0.65)


SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (0.58)


USD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USD  ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (0.54)


LRCX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRCX  Lam Research (0.54)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to URBN


CORN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CORN  Teucrium Corn (-0.0)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (0.0)


AB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AB  AllianceBernstein (0.0)


SPLG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPLG  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 (0.0)


UBS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UBS  UBS (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against URBN


RDFN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RDFN  Redfin (-0.55)


EPR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EPR  EPR Properties (-0.59)


NOC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NOC  Northrop Grumman (-0.59)


SBAC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SBAC  SBA Communications (-0.64)


SAVA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SAVA  Cassava Sciences (-0.73)







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