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USB Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: USB shows potential for growth driven by positive indicators from SBA lending and a $5 billion share repurchase plan. The dip in implied volatility suggests a favorable entry point.



Bearish Case: USB faces headwinds from declining loan activity and macroeconomic pressures. High market volatility indicates increased risk, with recent trends reflecting ongoing uncertainty.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Improved financial sector rallies USB: 40% chance.

2. Continued loan decline drags USB down: 35% chance.

3. Stability in historical performance leads to slight recovery: 15% chance.

4. External economic shock leads to sharp decline: 10% chance.



Trading Oracle: Consider establishing a bullish long call spread by buying the USB 11/15/2024 50.00 C and selling the 51.00 C. The current price action and favorable IV forecast indicate a reasonable upside opportunity. Adjust the strategy as volatility decreases to maximize profit potential.


November 03, 2024


U.S. Bancorp. Forecast

USB        U.S. Bancorp.

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