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USB Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: USB's focus on digital transformation and strong earnings report highlight growth potential, with stabilization in implied volatility reducing downside risks.

Bearish Case: Despite improving fundamentals, macroeconomic uncertainties and high volatility risk remain significant, particularly with backwardation suggesting future uncertainty.

Potential Outcomes: Economic rebound boosts USB: 45%
Continued macro challenges pressure USB: 35%
Regulatory changes provide mixed impact: 15%
Unexpected market shocks cause decline: 5%

May 10, 2025

U.S. Bancorp. Forecast

USB U.S. Bancorp.

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USB

PNC PNC Financial Services (0.97)

FITB Fifth Third Bancorp (0.97)

KKR KKR (0.95)

BANC Banc of California (0.93)

MTB M & T (0.9)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USB

HASI Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure (0.0)

MFA MFA Financial (-0.0)

EPI WisdomTree India Earnings (0.0)

AEO American Eagle Outfitters (-0.01)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USB

ACMR ACM Research (-0.5)

GROY Gold Royalty (-0.52)

PAGS PagSeguro Digital (-0.61)

EWW iShares MSCI Mexico (-0.69)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.75)

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