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USB Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: USB's focus on digital transformation and recent strategic adjustments could enhance profitability, leading to strong future performance.

Bearish Case: Economic uncertainties and potential regulatory impacts may weigh on USB, amplifying downside risks amidst volatile market conditions.

Potential Outcomes: USB may benefit from financial sector recovery (40%), face continued headwinds (35%), or result from mean reversion (15%). External shocks could drive sharp losses (10%).

Trading Oracle: Utilize a long call debit spread: buy USB's 50/55 calls expiring June 2025. The volatility surface supports long vol trades with high reward:risk. Probable uptrend offers 70% profit probability with positive edge.

January 31, 2025

U.S. Bancorp. Forecast

USB U.S. Bancorp.

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with USB

DPST Direxion Daily Regional Banks Bull 3X Shares (0.93)

PH Parker-Hannifin (0.91)

UDOW ProShares UltraPro Dow30 (0.91)

UWM ProShares Ultra Russell2000 (0.91)

DDM ProShares Ultra Dow30 (0.91)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to USB

CZR Caesars Entertainment (0.0)

PATH UiPath (-0.01)

YELP Yelp (-0.01)

VOD Vodafone (-0.02)

FRSH Freshworks (-0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against USB

TNK Teekay Tankers (-0.76)

NEP NextEra Energy (-0.78)

BIIB Biogen (-0.79)

ASML New York Shares (-0.79)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.81)

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