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UUP Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: UUP could gain if global uncertainties strengthen its safe-haven appeal. The flat implied volatility term structure hints at stabilization, providing a foundation for upside amid supportive economic indicators.

Bearish Case: UUP's downside is possible if inflation cools or geopolitical tensions resolve, weakening the dollar. The current price trends and implied volatility suggest limited immediate support, increasing bearish risks.

Potential Outcomes: UUP stabilizes with a 40% chance; a moderate bullish move if economic indicators support (30%); or bearish decline due to weakened dollar (30%).

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May 21, 2025

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Price Forecast
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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UUP

BXSL Blackstone Secured Lending Fund. (0.74)

BBWI Bath & Body Works (0.73)

TDOC Teladoc Health (0.72)

SNCY Sun Country Airlines (0.7)

FSK FS KKR (0.67)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UUP

ACMR ACM Research (-0.0)

ADI Analog Devices (0.0)

MCHI BTC iShares MSCI China (-0.0)

ITA BTC iShares U.S. Aerospac (-0.01)

COMP Compass (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UUP

HCA HCA Healthcare (-0.79)

VOD Vodafone (-0.8)

O Realty Income (-0.81)

VGIT Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury (-0.86)

YCL ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.92)

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