UUP Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: A bullish outlook is driven by ongoing economic strength and cautious Fed policies, supporting a stronger dollar. Bullish sentiment is amplified by high historical returns and increasing options volume, particularly in call options.




Bearish Case: Conversely, unexpected economic downturns or aggressive Fed tightening could weaken the dollar, triggering bearish trends in UUP. Current high implied volatility hints at uncertainty, making short positions appealing.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 60%: Economic indicators lead to UUP gains (5-10%).
  • 25%: Stagnation keeps UUP flat around $30.
  • 15%: Economic shocks lead to UUP declines (5-10%).




Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish short put vertical by selling $30 puts and buying $29 puts, capitalizing on the current low IV environment. Focus on a 30-delta strike to maximize profit potential while minimizing risk. Expected ROI of 74% aligns with the prevailing market sentiment toward stability in UUP.



December 20, 2024


Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Forecast

UUP        Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UUP



RRC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RRC  Range Resources (0.73)


GTLS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GTLS  Chart Industries (0.73)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (0.72)


COIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COIN  Coinbase (0.66)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (0.64)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UUP



BBAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBAI  BigBear.ai (0.0)


HEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HEI  Heico (0.0)


MO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MO  Altria (0.0)


NFG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFG  National Fuel Gas (-0.0)


WEAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WEAT  Teucrium Wheat (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UUP



LTPZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LTPZ  PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index Exchange-Traded (-0.79)


TAK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TAK  Takeda Pharmaceutical (-0.81)


JNJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JNJ  Johnson & Johnson (-0.84)


YCL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YCL  ProShares Ultra Yen (-0.85)


FXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FXY  Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (-0.9)









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