UVXY Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: UVXY could spike if geopolitical or economic turmoil emerges, driving volatility and boosting UVXY's short-term value. Helium's implied volatility suggests underpriced volatility risks.


Bearish Case: Historical and persistent return patterns in UVXY show a continuous decline. Current flat term structures and higher bearish risks relative to bullish ones indicate further depreciation.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Market shock spikes volatility: 20%.

2. Market stability leads to UVXY decline: 60%.

3. Short-term vol spikes from minor events: 15%.

4. Rapid economic recovery stabilizes markets: 5%.


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June 28, 2024


ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures Forecast

UVXY      ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with UVXY



VIXY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIXY  ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures (0.99)


VXX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VXX  iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures (0.99)


SQQQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SQQQ  ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (0.95)


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.93)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (0.92)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to UVXY



HXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HXL  Hexcel (0.0)


FSK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FSK  FS KKR (0.0)


KWEB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KWEB  KraneShares CSI China Internet (0.0)


TEAM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TEAM  Atlassian (0.0)


WY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WY  Weyerhaeuser (0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against UVXY



MU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MU  Micron Technology (-0.96)


VST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VST  Vistra (-0.97)


FTAI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FTAI  Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors (-0.97)


KKR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   KKR  KKR (-0.97)


TT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TT  Trane (-0.97)





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