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VEA Forecast


Bullish Case: Increased institutional inflows and low current implied volatility indicate potential for a price rally, as seen in the historical data supporting positive long-term returns over one to two years.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility suggests market uncertainty could prompt a price drop, especially given recent flat price action and economic concerns that may intensify in the near term.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 25% chance price increases by 3%: driven by strong institutional inflows.

2) 40% chance price stagnates around $50.51.

3) 35% chance price drops by 2%: reflecting economic downturn fears.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: buy VEA 50.00 C and sell VEA 52.00 C. This maximizes potential profit if prices rise, capturing favorable market odds. Anticipate expiry in 30 days to capitalize on expected momentum.


October 27, 2024


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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VEA


EFA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EFA  BTC iShares MSCI EAFE (0.99)


EWG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWG  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares MSCI Germany (0.95)


VT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VT  Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Total World Stock (0.9)


MOD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MOD  Modine Manufacturing (0.89)


DFEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DFEN  Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VEA


CCOI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCOI  Cogent Communications (0.0)


FLNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FLNC  Fluence Energy (0.0)


UCO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UCO  ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.0)


DKNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DKNG  DraftKings (-0.01)


HZO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HZO  Marinemax (0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VEA


MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (-0.84)


SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.85)


UVIX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   UVIX  VS Trust - 2x Long VIX Futures (-0.85)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.86)


SPXS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXS  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.88)







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