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VGLT Forecast


Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Increased call volume and a 4% tilt toward bullish risk indicate potential interest in a rally. Rate cuts could lead to bond price recovery.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and flat historical returns suggest skepticism. Persistent inflation and economic concerns may pressure prices downward.



Potential Outcomes: 40% chance of modest price recovery, 30% likelihood of continuing flat trend, 20% chance of decline amid inflation risks, 10% possibility of sharp rally with favorable economic news.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bearish credit spread by selling $57 put, buying $56 put expiring in ~35 days. Leverage favorable volatility disparity and 56% profit odds. High reward:risk and convexity with hedge against volatility spikes.


February 16, 2025


Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Forecast

VGLT        Vanguard Group, Inc. - Vanguard Long-Term Treasury

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