Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Welltower could benefit from improving healthcare dynamics, robust demand for senior housing, and potential institutional investments. The projected growth supports a price surge beyond $145 in the upcoming months.

Bearish Case: A downturn may arise from negative investor sentiment due to large stakeholders reducing their stakes and ongoing macroeconomic pressures that could hinder growth, potentially dropping WELL below $130.

Potential Outcomes:

1. 65% chance of price growth due to favorable healthcare trends;

2. 25% likelihood of stagnation;

3. 10% chance of significant downfall driven by market volatility and institutional selling.

Trading Oracle: Consider executing a bullish debit spread by buying WELL $135 calls and selling $140 calls, targeting the December expiration. This capitalizes on low volatility and high growth potential, aiming for a 34% chance of profit with a substantial risk-reward ratio.

November 21, 2024