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WTI Forecast



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: A potential recovery in demand due to geopolitical tensions, coupled with supply constraints from OPEC+, could reverse current bearish trends and propel prices up significantly in 2025.



Bearish Case: Continued high inventories and weak global demand signal a persistent bearish outlook, likely keeping WTI prices suppressed well into 2025 due to overarching economic concerns.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 1. Supply disruptions from geopolitical events (25%)
  • 2. Continued weak demand leads to further price decreases (35%)
  • 3. OPEC+ production cuts stimulate a price rally (20%)
  • 4. Cold winter spikes energy demand (15%)
  • 5. Macro-economic downturn reduces prices (5%)



Trading Oracle: Given the high implied volatility in near-term puts, consider a bearish credit spread by selling $2.00 calls and buying $3.00 calls for January 2025 expiration. This strategy capitalizes on current bearish sentiment while offering effective downside protection. Aim for premium collection with a high probability of profit in a low-volume environment.


December 12, 2024


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WTI        W & T Offshore

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with WTI


CYTK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CYTK  Cytokinetics (0.88)


EWZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWZ  iShares MSCI Brazil (0.87)


MVIS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MVIS  Microvision (0.85)


CLF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CLF  Cleveland-Cliffs (0.85)


IEP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IEP  Icahn (0.85)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to WTI


INTU Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   INTU  Intuit (0.0)


SRRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRRK  Scholar Rock (-0.01)


JOBY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   JOBY  Joby Aviation (0.01)


GIII Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GIII  G-III Apparel (-0.01)


TMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMO  Thermo Fisher Scientific (-0.02)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against WTI


ONON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ONON  On (-0.85)


ERJ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ERJ  Embraer (-0.85)


AGX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   AGX  Argan (-0.85)


SUPV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SUPV  Grupo Supervielle S.A. (-0.86)


BSX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BSX  Boston Scientific (-0.87)


WTI News over Time





Click points to explore news by date. News sentiment ranges from -10 (very negative) to +10 (very positive) where 0 is neutral.







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