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Bearish   <—>   Bullish



80% Confidence



Bullish Case: Rising infrastructure investments and transition to greener production may sustain U.S. Steel's growth. Higher call option volumes suggest increased investor optimism.



Bearish Case: High implied volatility and previous earnings concerns suggest potential downside risk. Flattened volatility term structure may point to ongoing market skepticism and potential price decline.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of moderate growth driven by infrastructure demand.
  • 35% risk of decline due to high implied volatility and market headwinds.
  • 25% chance of price volatility with minimal net change.



Trading Oracle: Initiate a bullish debit spread by buying $38 calls expiring in ~30 days and selling $42 calls. Leverage medium-term upside potential amid current market skepticism. High reward:risk ratio with 80% profit probability based on current volatility analysis. Positive edge, targeting strategic entry.


February 08, 2025


United States Steel Forecast

X        United States Steel

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