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Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: United States Steel could benefit from potential synergies post-Nippon Steel acquisition, coupled with increased domestic infrastructure spending. Positive earnings momentum may drive bullish sentiment.



Bearish Case: Insider selling and regulatory scrutiny surrounding the Nippon Steel acquisition could weigh heavily on sentiment, while broader market volatility may lead to a bearish outlook.



Potential Outcomes:
  • 60% chance of earnings beat due to strong Q4 guidance and market demand.
  • 25% chance of stock drop stemming from ongoing insider selling pressures.
  • 15% chance of stagnation as merger uncertainty persists.



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish debit spread by buying January 2025 call options at $41 (high IV) and selling calls at $43. This strategy capitalizes on high implied volatility and potential earnings upside with limited downside risk. Consider shorting $34 puts to leverage current market sentiment for additional income.


December 12, 2024


United States Steel Forecast

X        United States Steel

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