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Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: United States Steel's strategic positioning with Nippon Steel could enhance operational efficiencies, potentially driving stock price higher, especially post-approval of the acquisition amidst strong domestic steel demand.



Bearish Case: Opposition from political figures like Kamala Harris raises significant doubts about regulatory approval of the Nippon Steel acquisition, risking stock depreciation amid heightened market volatility and diminished investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% - Approval of Nippon Steel acquisition boosts stock;

2) 30% - Continued volatility leads to price drops;

3) 30% - Political intervention delays acquisition, causing uncertainty.



Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread: purchase $40 calls expiring in November and sell $42 calls. This leverages the high implied volatility and utilizes the positive outlook on operational synergies. Target premium discounts ahead of news events for high probability with decent spread ranges.


October 17, 2024


United States Steel Forecast

X        United States Steel

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