SPWH Forecast


Bullish Case: Insiders bought shares worth $694.2k, indicating confidence in the stock [simplywall.st]. The historical return surface shows potential for positive returns despite market volatility; favorable market conditions could drive growth.


Bearish Case: Recent 78.7% decline from two years ago and high debt-to-equity ratio indicate financial instability [Helium, Yahoo]. AI price forecast is bearish with a potential -0.61% change [Helium], suggesting further downside.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 60% chance: Continued decline due to financial instability.

2) 30% chance: Mild recovery driven by insider confidence.

3) 10% chance: Stock remains flat amid mixed indicators


Trading Oracle: Deploy a debit spread (Helium Long Volatility) strategy. Bearish outlook; purchase Jan 2025 2.50 Puts and sell 2.50 Put to cap risk. Time outlook: 6 months. This strategy maximizes potential profit from expected decline with controlled risk.


July 03, 2024


Sportsman's Warehouse Forecast

SPWH      Sportsman's Warehouse











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with SPWH



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.73)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.56)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.75)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to SPWH



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.56)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.71)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.73)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.75)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against SPWH



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.73)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.71)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.56)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.75)





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