AI XLRE Forecast + Trading Strategies


Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish


Bullish Case: A potential housing recovery alongside anticipated Fed rate cuts could push XLRE higher. Implied volatility suggests that the market underestimates upcoming bullish movements, particularly with call options seeing higher volume recently.


Bearish Case: Market uncertainty and higher put volumes indicate significant downside risks. The flat term structure of implied volatility suggests lack of strong bullish catalysts and reinforces fears of decreased demand in real estate.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 35% chance of a slow recovery leading XLRE to $46 in Q4 2024.

2. 40% likelihood of price stability around $44.

3. 15% chance of a dip below $41 due to economic downturn signs.

4. 10% chance of unexpected positive news driving prices beyond $48.


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September 10, 2024


Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Forecast

XLRE      Real Estate Select Sector SPDR











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with XLRE



VNQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VNQ  Vanguard Real Estate Index (0.99)


DRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRN  Direxion Real Estate Bull 3x Shares (0.97)


BND Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BND  Vanguard Total Bond Market (0.94)


BLK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLK  Blackrock (0.94)


CUBE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CUBE  CubeSmart (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to XLRE



FIGS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FIGS  Figs (-0.0)


ON Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ON  ON Semiconductor (-0.0)


APLD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   APLD  Applied Blockchain (-0.0)


YANG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   YANG  Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear 3X Shares (-0.0)


SNOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SNOW  Snowflake (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against XLRE



LABD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LABD  Direxion Daily S&P Biotech Bear 3X Shares (-0.82)


TBT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TBT  PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.88)


TMV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMV  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)


DRV Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   DRV  Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (-0.98)


SRS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRS  ProShares UltraShort Real Estate (-0.99)





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