ZM Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Zoom's robust cash position, recent raised guidance, and trading at a low valuation (2.3x EV/FY25 revenue) suggest potential for price recovery. High implied volatility in short term supports upward movement.


Bearish Case: Continued insider sales, persistent market uncertainty and high implied volatility indicate potential further declines. The low delta and high implied volatility risk greater fluctuations, increasing downside risk.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 40% Probability: Modest price recovery due to raised guidance and strong cash position.

2. 40% Probability: Continued declines from broader market pressures and insider sales.

3. 20% Probability: Stagnant performance amid flat volatility and low trading volume.


Trading Oracle: Adopt a bearish short volatility strategy. Sell $59 call and buy $61 call expiring in ~4 days. Low risk, high reward:risk. Market odds of profit: 73%. Helium odds of profit: 73%. Utilize long tail convexity to hedge.


July 16, 2024


Zoom Video Communications Forecast

ZM      Zoom Video Communications











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