UPS Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: The UPS implied volatility surface and historical price surface suggest potential for price stabilization. With term structures showing declining volatility, short-term movements could favor moderate gains. Call options volume exceeding put options indicates positive sentiment.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility in short-term structure suggests continued uncertainty. Low trading volumes, neutral AI price forecast, and historical price return patterns show increased downside risk. Insider selling and stagnant price action highlight investor skepticism.


Potential Outcomes:

1. 35%: Slight uptick due to stable implied volatility and positive sentiment.

2. 30%: Neutral price action driven by low trading volumes and market skepticism.

3. 35%: Downside risk, given high short-term volatility and insider selling.


Trading Oracle: Trade bearish short volatility spreads given high short-term implied volatility. Sell $146 call, buy $165 call expiring in 4 days. Strategy offers high edge, with annual historical return of 7%. Monitor for price stabilization to close positions promptly if bullish trends emerge.


July 23, 2024


United Parcel Service, Inc. - Forecast

UPS      United Parcel Service, Inc. -











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