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BIRD Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: Allbirds' recent product innovations may capture consumer interest, combined with effective cost management strategies boosting profitability and market position, potentially leading to a strong price bounce.



Bearish Case: Persistent legal challenges, declining sales, and negative market sentiment may hinder recovery efforts, driving BIRD's stock price further down and eroding investor confidence.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Turnaround strategy succeeds (35%);

2. Legal issues cause significant reputational damage (30%);

3. Product launches lead to unexpectedly high demand (20%);

4. Further price decline from market pessimism (15%).



Trading Oracle: Consider initiating debit spreads on the August 2024 calls, given a 60-90 day horizon. With high implied volatility (~213%), capitalize on potential upward movements driven by product launches. Target strikes at $12 (buy) and $13 (sell) to maximize risk-reward, maintaining close watch on earnings for volatility spikes.


October 16, 2024


Allbirds Forecast

BIRD        Allbirds

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