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GHM Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: GHM's aerospace sector growth, low price-to-book ratio, and historical mean reversion suggest potential for recovery aided by high implied volatility strength.

Bearish Case: High implied volatility of puts and recent price declines indicate market skepticism and potential for downward corrections amidst economic uncertainties.

Potential Outcomes: Continued recovery: 60% (aerospace growth supports).
Price correction: 25% (economic headwinds).
Flat performance: 15% (mean-reverting trend persists).

April 11, 2025

Graham Forecast

GHM Graham

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with GHM

LITE Lumentum (0.85)

AXP American Express (0.84)

TFC Truist Financial (0.83)

KKR KKR (0.82)

DFS Discover Financial Services (0.82)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to GHM

SCO ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (-0.0)

SAM Boston Beer Co. (0.01)

HPK HighPeak Energy (-0.01)

SOHU Sohu.com Ltd. (-0.01)

MEOH Methanex (0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against GHM

DVN Devon Energy (-0.66)

UDN Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish (-0.68)

XP XP (-0.71)

DG Dollar General (-0.78)

SPDN Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares (-0.82)

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