TFC Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Truist Financial (TFC) is poised for recovery as it restructures its balance sheet, focuses on high-yield, shorter-duration securities, and benefits from higher net interest income. Growing institutional support and positive trends in call option volume signify rising investor confidence.


Bearish Case: TFC faces significant headwinds with a recent 33% profit decline and considerable securities losses. Market uncertainties, particularly around its stopping of MBS sales, present risks that could lead to persistent volatility and downward price pressure.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Earnings surprise (40%);

2. Continued profit decline (25%);

3. Market stabilization but with volatility (20%);

4. Major investment losses (15%). Potential surprising earnings report could lead to stock gains, while prolonged losses may trigger bearish sentiment.


Trading Oracle: Engage in shorting volatility with a credit spread. Sell near-the-money call options like the TFC 08/16/2024 45.00 C, expecting price stagnation or minor drops. Hedge by buying higher strike calls. This strategy optimizes risk-reward, aiming for swift profits, given current implied volatility dynamics.


July 25, 2024


Truist Financial Forecast

TFC      Truist Financial











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with TFC



IAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IAT  BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares U.S. Regional Banks (0.96)


PNC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PNC  PNC Financial Services (0.96)


FITB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   FITB  Fifth Third Bancorp (0.95)


HBAN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HBAN  Huntington Bancshares (0.95)


C Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   C  Citigroup (0.93)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to TFC



ATEC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ATEC  Alphatec (0.0)


NAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NAT  Nordic American Tankers (0.0)


REXR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REXR  Rexford Industrial Realty (0.0)


GPRK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GPRK  Geopark (0.0)


USO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   USO  United States Commodity Funds (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against TFC



SDOW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDOW  ProShares UltraPro Short Dow30 (-0.88)


SH Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SH  ProShares Short S&P500 (-0.88)


TWM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TWM  ProShares UltraShort Russell2000 (-0.89)


SRTY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SRTY  ProShares UltraPro Short Russell2000 (-0.89)


TZA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TZA  Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (-0.89)





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