NVAX Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: Novavax's unique protein-based vaccines hold potential amidst mRNA vaccine hesitancy, with recent approvals and high implied volatility suggesting an opportunity for market expansion and revenue growth.




Bearish Case: Regulatory delays, high competition, and past operational struggles may hinder any price recovery. The persistent high volatility indicates uncertainty and market skepticism remain strong.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 40%: Successful vaccine rollout enhances revenue streams.
  • 35%: Regulatory hurdles continue, stalling progress.
  • 25%: Competitive pressures further impede growth.



April 13, 2025


Novavax Forecast

NVAX        Novavax











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CDW Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CDW  CDW (0.84)


NTLA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NTLA  Intellia Therapeutics (0.81)


RCKT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RCKT  Rocket Pharmaceuticals (0.8)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NVAX



HIMX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HIMX  Himax (-0.02)


RYAAY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RYAAY  Ryanair (-0.03)


BIP Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BIP  Brookfield Infrastructure (0.03)


GT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GT  Goodyear Tire & Rubber (0.03)


EA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EA  Electronic Arts (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NVAX



LNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LNG  Cheniere Energy (-0.75)


OUNZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OUNZ  VanEck Merk Gold (-0.76)


GSHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   GSHD  Goosehead Insurance (-0.76)


LRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LRN  Stride (-0.78)


OGE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   OGE  Oge Energy (-0.82)









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