VNQ Forecast



Bearish<—>Bullish



80% Confidence




Bullish Case: High call volume and backwardation suggest potential upside as investors position for growth and interest rate stabilization benefits VNQ's yield attraction.




Bearish Case: Persistently high implied volatility, despite recent backwardation, reflects uncertainty from economic pressures, potential rate hikes, and real estate sector challenges.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 40%: Continued flat performance amid mixed signals.
  • 35%: Moderate recovery led by bullish position and economic recovery.
  • 25%: Downside risk influenced by interest rate hikes and economic instability.



May 06, 2025


Vanguard Real Estate Index Forecast

VNQ        Vanguard Real Estate Index











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with VNQ



SPYD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPYD  SPDR Series Trust - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Dividend (0.94)


CCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CCK  Crown Holdings (0.89)


SCHD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SCHD  Schwab US Dividend Equity (0.85)


RY Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RY  Royal Bank Of Canada (0.84)


IRM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IRM  Iron Mountain (0.83)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to VNQ



ABSI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ABSI  Absci (-0.01)


MAIN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAIN  Main Street (0.01)


TXT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TXT  Textron (0.01)


SIG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIG  Signet Jewelers (0.02)


SEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SEE  Sealed Air (0.03)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against VNQ



NFE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NFE  New Fortress Energy (-0.67)


PTEN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTEN  Patterson-UTI Energy (-0.67)


ETR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETR  Entergy (-0.68)


BBWI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BBWI  Bath & Body Works (-0.68)


WBA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   WBA  Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.82)









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