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Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Murphy Oil’s implied volatility is stabilizing, suggesting potential for price recovery. Support from strategic projects and the possibility of higher energy prices lend an optimistic outlook.

Bearish Case: High historical volatility combined with negative price trends and insider selling signal potential continued declines. Environmental concerns and weak volume further cloud future prospects.

Potential Outcomes: 30% chance of recovery due to stabilized volatility and strategic projects.
40% chance of continued decline influenced by insider selling and flat market conditions.
20% chance stable price with slight fluctuations.

Trading Oracle: Consider a Bearish Long Volatility strategy by buying OOTM put options due to high implied volatility and declining trend in price, aligning with current bearish indicators like insider selling and poor performance.

April 26, 2025

Murphy Oil Forecast

MUR Murphy Oil

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with MUR

OXY Occidental Petroleum (0.97)

DVN Devon Energy (0.96)

ADNT Adient (0.95)

TDW Tidewater Inc. - New (0.95)

ASH Ashland (0.94)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to MUR

MNSO MINISO Group Holding Ltd (0.01)

APPN Appian (-0.02)

TBT PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yea (-0.03)

FCEL Fuelcell Energy (0.04)

RMBS Rambus (0.04)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against MUR

AGI Alamos Gold (-0.85)

TVTX Travere Therapeutics (-0.85)

EOSE Eos Energy Enterprises (-0.87)

BK Bank Of New York Mellon (-0.88)

LRN Stride (-0.89)

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