ACM Forecast


Bullish Case: The current term structure shows lower implied volatility for ACM compared to historical levels, indicating potential for price upside as market uncertainty decreases. A growing backlog and strategic expansions further support bullish sentiment.


Bearish Case: Despite bullish indicators, high recent insider selling suggests a lack of confidence among investors. Meanwhile, fluctuating market conditions and geopolitical risks could hinder ACM's growth trajectory.


Potential Outcomes:

1) 40% chance: Global infrastructure recovery boosts growth.

2) 30% chance: Delays or losses in key projects due to market volatility.

3) 30% chance: Steady growth despite market challenges, supported by backlog.


Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish strategy with a bull call spread (buy the August 16, 2024, 90 Call and sell the 100 Call) while hedging risk with an OTM put. Given the current low volatility, aim for profit through rising ACM prices as projects ramp up.


July 26, 2024


AECOM Forecast

ACM      AECOM











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