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Bullish Case: ACRS could see a significant rebound if upcoming trial results for RA and AD are positive, backed by the strong recent licensing deal and historical mean reversion trends indicating potential recovery in stock price.

Bearish Case: Continued cash burn and negative trial outcomes may erode investor confidence, with high competition in AD treatments limiting market share and resulting in further declines in ACRS’s stock price.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive Phase 2 data (70%);

2. Negative clinical trial results (30%);

3. New licensing deals increase revenue (50%);

4. Increased competition impacts market share (40%);

5. Further cash burn leads to stock price declines (60%).

Trading Oracle: Adopt a long volatility strategy with ACRS 11/15/2024 1.50 C options due to high implied volatility and tactical upside from potential positive Phase 2 readouts, aiming for quick profits. Set protective stops at 30%.

September 24, 2024