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CARR Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: CARR exhibits strong historical returns and current growth in HVAC demand. The short-term implied volatility drop supports potential price appreciation as market confidence increases.

Bearish Case: Current backwardation of implied volatility and flat trading volume suggest potential underestimation of risks, which could lead to a downturn if economic conditions worsen.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Steady growth due to stable HVAC demand (40%).

2. Volatility from geopolitical issues causes dip (35%).

3. Technological innovations provide unexpected gains (25%).

May 14, 2025

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CARR Carrier

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CARR

IRM Iron Mountain (0.85)

BIP Brookfield Infrastructure (0.84)

GRBK Green Brick (0.79)

RY Royal Bank Of Canada (0.77)

PHM PulteGroup (0.76)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CARR

MEG Montrose Environmental (-0.0)

ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT (-0.01)

TDW Tidewater Inc. - New (-0.01)

STM New York Shares (0.01)

TDOC Teladoc Health (-0.01)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CARR

DAN Dana (-0.53)

ETR Entergy (-0.62)

DPZ Dominos Pizza (-0.62)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.65)

PCRX Pacira BioSciences (-0.71)

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