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CARR Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: Carrier's strategic expansions and favorable sentiment may drive steady growth with implied volatility decreasing, indicating market stability.

Bearish Case: High put volume and geopolitical tensions suggest potential downside; recent flat price action supports this cautious outlook.

Potential Outcomes: 35% chance of steady growth due to strategic expansions; 50% chance of flat trading; 15% chance of decline from external pressures.

Trading Oracle: Use bullish long volatility debit spreads, buying 03/21/2025 $67.50 calls and selling $70 calls. Target March expiry with declining implied volatility, aligning with strategic expansions. High reward:risk and probability of profit.

January 10, 2025

Carrier Forecast

CARR Carrier

Price Forecast
Future Uncertainty

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Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CARR

VTV Vanguard Value (0.94)

TT Trane (0.94)

KGC Kinross Gold (0.93)

SPLV Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility (0.93)

DFEN Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares (0.93)

Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CARR

NKLA Nikola (0.01)

FXY Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen (0.02)

LCID Lucid (0.02)

VTRS Viatris (-0.02)

INTU Intuit (0.02)

Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CARR

IRTC iRhythm (-0.85)

AMR Alta Mesa Resources (-0.88)

APLS Apellis Pharmaceuticals (-0.9)

WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance (-0.9)

SPXS Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X Shares (-0.91)

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