CARR Forecast + Trading Strategies


Bullish Case: Carrier's price returns show a consistent upward trend, as highlighted by Helium's positive volatility differential. Upcoming earnings could further fuel demand in its stable HVAC market.


Bearish Case: Stagnant options term structure and significant spread in implied volatility against Helium's model indicate market uncertainty, with geopolitical risks potentially impacting operations.


Potential Outcomes: Successful Viessmann integration driving growth (65%), competition impacting market share (20%), disruptive geopolitical events influencing operations (15%). Despite predicted stability, external disruptions remain likely.


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July 16, 2024










Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with CARR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.43)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.55)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to CARR



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.43)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.47)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.55)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against CARR



ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (0.47)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (-0.43)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (-0.55)





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