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ADPT Forecast

Bearish <—> Bullish

80% Confidence

Bullish Case: ADPT shows a 110.1% year-on-year gain, driven by strategic partnerships and Medicare support, indicating strong potential upside.

Bearish Case: Persistent market skepticism, high implied volatility, and operational challenges may continue to pressure ADPT’s stock price.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Continued MRD success boosts stock (40%).

2. Market skepticism remains high (30%).

3. Strategic partnerships falter (30%).

Trading Oracle: Utilize a Helium Long Volatility debit spread with March 2025 $7.50/$10.00 calls given ADPT's implied volatility and potential upside. This strategy balances risk with potential reward over a mid-term horizon.

January 30, 2025

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