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ADPT Forecast



Price Forecast:


Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: ADPT's MRD segment shows robust growth, with Q3 revenues rising 52% YoY. Expanded Medicare coverage enhances market potential, fostering investor confidence and possibly leading to long-term price recovery.



Bearish Case: Despite recent revenue growth, ADPT faces persistent market skepticism and declining immune medicine revenues, which could pressure the stock, especially if strategic initiatives fail to materialize.



Potential Outcomes:

1. Profitability by 2026 (40%): Positive MRD growth.

2. Sustained revenue decline (30%): Immune medicine struggles.

3. Strategic partnerships achieve success (20%): Boosts confidence.

4. Insider selling hampers growth (10%): Scrutiny persists.



Trading Oracle: Adopt a bullish stance via debit spreads on ADPT December $5/$7.50 calls, capturing potential reversals. The current high implied volatility suggests a favorable risk-reward ratio. Aim to leverage upcoming positive earnings momentum for short-term gains.


November 21, 2024


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