Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: ADSK shows strong growth potential fueled by increasing demand in construction and technological advancements in AI and VR. The recent high implied volatility indicates market confidence, suggesting a bullish trend likely to continue as ADSK adapts its business strategy.

Bearish Case: Potential cyclical downturns in the construction industry and disruptions from Autodesk's payment model transition pose significant risks. The market's current bearish sentiment reflected by the high trading volume of put options signals caution ahead for ADSK's stability.

Potential Outcomes:

• Robust earnings report leading to a 70% probability of price appreciation.
• Payment model transition confusion causing a 40% chance of price decline.
• Economic indicators influencing a 55% probability of destabilization.
• Increasing institutional investment reflecting a 65% chance of upward price momentum.
• Construction sector slow down posing a 30% threat to revenue.

Trading Oracle: Engage a bullish put credit spread targeting December expirations. Sell 290 puts and buy 285 puts, capitalizing on current implied volatility of 33.2% which is elevated. This strategy benefits from premium decay and the strong likelihood of a price rebound, targeting a solid risk-reward ratio.

December 14, 2024