NIO Forecast


Bullish Case: NIO’s mean-reverting price action with a 19.5% rise over the past 90 days suggests resilience, especially with increased call volume. The flat term structure and mean-reverting historical price action point towards a potential moderate upside.


Bearish Case: NIO faces significant challenges such as high volatility, EU tariffs, competitive pressures, and failure to achieve profitability, all contributing to a downward risk momentum.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive News (30%): Boosts stock value.

2. Stagnation (50%): Stable prices.

3. Negative impact from tariffs and competition (20%): Decline.


Trading Oracle: Opt for a near-term bearish stance using slightly OTM credit spreads expiring in 15-30 days. Leverage high implied volatility (IV at 85-112%). Probability of downside driven by competitive, regulatory, and geopolitical risks. This strategy maximizes alpha with a positive reward:risk balance, targeting short-term declines.


July 18, 2024


NIO Forecast

NIO      NIO











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with NIO



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.84)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.77)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to NIO



XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.77)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.8)


VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.84)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against NIO



VFC Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VFC  VF (0.84)


LI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LI  Li Auto (0.8)


XLE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XLE  Energy Select Sector SPDR (-0.45)


ETRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ETRN  Equitrans Midstream (-0.77)





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