AHT Forecast


Bullish Case: AHT’s recent asset sales and deleveraging strategy could stabilize financials, reducing debt and improving cash flow, which might attract institutional investors.


Bearish Case: High implied volatility and poor price returns over holding periods suggest significant downside risk, compounded by weak financials and ongoing operational issues.


Potential Outcomes:

1. Effective asset sales and restructuring (30%)

2. Continued financial struggles (50%)

3. Slight improvements from cost-cutting (20%).


Trading Oracle: Implement a bearish strategy with Helium Short Volatility using credit spreads given high implied volatility. Sell 01/17/2025 2.50 C options to capture premium decay. Focus on a 6-12 months horizon due to likely continued price declines, backed by weak financial indicators.


July 18, 2024


Ashford Hospitality Forecast

AHT      Ashford Hospitality











Correlated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly with AHT



MED Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MED  Medifast (0.96)


MEI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MEI  Methode Electronics (0.95)


PTLO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PTLO  Portillos (0.95)


LCID Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   LCID  Lucid (0.95)


CHPT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   CHPT  ChargePoint (0.94)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to AHT



VIPS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VIPS  Vipshop (-0.0)


HOLX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HOLX  Hologic (0.0)


XRX Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   XRX  Xerox (0.0)


NEE Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   NEE  NextEra Energy (-0.01)


HPQ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HPQ  HP (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against AHT



VST Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VST  Vistra (-0.95)


PGR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   PGR  Progressive (-0.95)


MCK Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MCK  Mckesson (-0.96)


SFM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SFM  Sprouts Farmers Market (-0.96)


STNG Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STNG  Scorpio Tankers (-0.96)





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