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ALGT Forecast + Trading Strategies



Price Forecast:




80% Confidence

Bearish   <->   Bullish



Bullish Case: ALGT shows potential for recovery as increased leisure travel and operational improvements may enhance revenue. High implied volatility suggests market optimism about near-term performance, making it attractive for bullish strategies.



Bearish Case: Continued pricing pressures, low consumer sentiment, and high operational costs may hinder ALGT's profitability. Recent historical performance indicates potential declines, suggesting caution for bullish positions.



Potential Outcomes:
  • Increased travel demand boosts ALGT: 35% chance
  • Continued operational challenges lead to declining stock: 30% chance
  • Market stabilization results in rangebond trading: 35% chance



Trading Oracle: Implement a bullish strategy by selling a $75 put and buying two $65 puts, targeting an 82% chance of profit with favorable risk/reward dynamics. Predict a minor upturn in travel demand driving the price above $83. Hold for 28 days with potential 10% return.


December 21, 2024


Allegiant Travel Forecast

ALGT        Allegiant Travel

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Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to ALGT


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EVGO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EVGO  EVgo (-0.0)


URBN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   URBN  Urban Outfitters (0.0)


TMF Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TMF  Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (0.0)


HDB Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HDB  HDFC (-0.0)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against ALGT


HUMA Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   HUMA  Humacyte (-0.75)


BLBD Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BLBD  Blue Bird (-0.79)


ASPN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   ASPN  Aspen Aerogels (-0.8)


TNDM Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   TNDM  Tandem Diabetes Care (-0.83)


REGN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   REGN  Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (-0.83)







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