Price Forecast:

Bullish Case: Implied volatility for ALT remains high, suggesting potential for significant price movement. Positive announcements regarding ongoing trials could validate optimistic projections, driving prices higher in response to heightened investor sentiment.

Bearish Case: Recent trial outcomes have fostered skepticism. High implied volatility indicates uncertainty, and market conditions could deteriorate if negative sentiment persists, causing further price decline in the near term.

Potential Outcomes:

1. Positive trial results leading to 50% price increase (30% probability).
2. Continued bearish sentiment resulting in a 30% decline (40% probability).
3. Market stabilization with minimal price movement (20% probability).
4. Unexpected legal hurdles impacting stock negatively (10% probability).

Trading Oracle: Consider initiating a bullish call debit spread with January 2025 calls at $10, targeting high IV that reflects upcoming positive trial outcomes. This strategy limits risk while leveraging ALT's potential upside in the near term, capitalizing on current positive sentiment trend.

December 05, 2024