APO Forecast + Trading Strategies




Price Forecast:


Bearish<->Bullish




Bullish Case: Increasing implied volatility alongside bullish sentiment indicates potential price gains for APO in the near term. Successful integration of new acquisitions could drive higher revenues, supporting upward movement.




Bearish Case: High implored volatility suggests significant risk; continued market uncertainty and legal challenges may suppress stock price, leading to potential declines in the short term.




Potential Outcomes:
  • 40% chance of successful acquisition integration boosting price.
  • 30% chance of legal issues negatively impacting stock performance.
  • 30% chance of increased market volatility driving prices down.




Trading Oracle: Consider a bullish debit spread by buying $165 call and selling $170 call expiring in 7 days. This strategy captures volatility premiums with an expected return of 386%, backed by high historical profitability rates. For bearish conditions, assess possible credit spreads to hedge against downside risks if price remains uncertain.



November 24, 2024










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IR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   IR  Ingersoll-Rand (0.9)


SPXL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SPXL  Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (0.9)


STRL Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   STRL  Sterling Construction Company (0.89)



Uncorrelated Assets

Assets with little price relationship to APO



RGTI Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   RGTI  Rigetti Computing (-0.0)


SIMO Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SIMO  Silicon Motion Technology (0.0)


MAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   MAT  Mattel (-0.0)


S Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   S  Sprint (-0.01)


F Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   F  Ford Motor (-0.01)



Anticorrelated Assets

Assets that tend to move strongly against APO



EWZ Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   EWZ  iShares MSCI Brazil (-0.78)


COUR Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   COUR  Coursera (-0.81)


BMRN Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   BMRN  Registered Shares (-0.83)


VSAT Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   VSAT  Viasat (-0.84)


SDS Forecast + Options Trading Strategies   SDS  ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (-0.88)









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